Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Somalia
In March 2026, the DRC has seen continued fighting between government forces and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, despite some progress being made in the diplomatic sphere. In Nigeria, Salafi-jihadist terrorist groups increased their activities, most notably seen with renewed IS-WAP Ramadan offensive. In Somalia, tensions escalated between federal government and other federal subjects that could negatively impact on counter-terrorism efforts in the country. This report will primarily focus on security developments in three respective states.
1. Democratic Republic of the Congo
In March 2026, fighting between the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) and Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group continued in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), despite some progress being made in the diplomatic sphere with the return of both DRC and Rwanda to the US-led Washington Accords framework. Both sides are willing to make concessions for the success of the peace process: the DRC will double down on its efforts to neutralize the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an eastern DRC-based armed group whose ethnic Hutu members were involved in 1994 Rwandan genocide, while Rwanda will persuade M23 rebels to withdraw from some forward positions in the eastern DRC.[1] Latter started withdrawing from 10 forward positions in the Lubero and Walikale territories in the North Kivu province by the end of the month, while many warned that the reoccupation of abandoned positions by pro-government Wazalendo militias could result in further weakening of state authority in the eastern DRC.[2]
Recommitment to diplomatic solution of the FARDC-M23 conflict came after the US Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and four of its high-ranking officials for actively supporting, training and fighting alongside the M23 rebel group, a US- and UN-sanctioned armed rebel group accused of human rights abuses and mass displacement of civilians in eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.[3]
Despite renewed peace process, UN acting top envoy for the DRC, Vivian van de Perre warned the UN Security Council that the fighting between FARDC and pro-government Wazalendo fighters on one side and M23 rebels and their Rwandan backers on the other is escalating in North and South Kivu provinces with increasing use of heavy weapons and drones, especially in the urban areas and villages of eastern DRC.[4] The attacks in densely populated environment often result in numerous civilian casualties, like on 11 March 2026, when drone strikes hit M23-controlled, eastern DRC’s biggest city Goma, which resulted in deaths of at least three people including a French humanitarian worker.[5]
Unstable situation in the eastern DRC was also exploited by Islamic State’s regional branch, Islamic State – Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) which conducted multiple coordinated attacks targeting gold mining sites near town of Muchacha and Mavuvu in DRC’s Ituri province. According to DRC officials, IS-CAP fighters first attacked FARDC guard positions, then overran Chinese-linked industrial gold sites operated by Kimiya Mining Enterprise and MCC Resources, where insurgents burned workers’ living quarters and multiple vehicles, destroyed mining equipment and sabotaged processing infrastructure. Several people were either killed or abducted and many more displaced.[6] Independent OSINT analyst stated that one of the primary targets of the complex assault was local population, confirmed by IS-CAP’s propaganda channels which reported seven soldiers, 17 civilians killed and more than 100 Christian civilians abducted.[7] It is likely that IS-CAP will continue to exploit lack of proper government control in the eastern DRC to expand its operations, despite FARDC and Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) counter-terrorism efforts eliminated high-ranking IS-CAP commander, known locally as ”Defender,” in North Kivu province during joint counter-terrorism campaign named ”Operation Shujaa.” Deceased commander was reportedly responsible for manufacturing IEDs and maintaining support networks in eastern DRC.[8]
2. Nigeria
In March 2026, terrorist groups increased their activities in Nigeria, primarily in its northern states along Niger-Nigeria border and Lake Chad region. Islamic State’s regional branch, Islamic State – West Africa Province (IS-WAP), launched its Ramadan offensive. While Nigerian officials reported that the launch of the offensive in the form of simultaneous, complex attacks against four different military camps between 5 and 6 March 2026 (Jakana, Konduga, Mainuk, Marte) failed, independent OSINT analyst stated that current offensive named ”Burn the Camps” is more intense than last year’s, since IS-WAP militants managed to overwhelm Nigerian military forces at four different locations during the same night.[9] IS-WAP militants conducted at least six more attacks against Nigerian military camps in the Lake Chad region that resulted in capture of multiple trucks and military hardware. IS-WAP’s propaganda videos and graphics, independent sources and Nigerian officials confirm large amounts of weapons, ammunition, vehicles and military equipment captured and multiple soldiers, including officers killed or wounded during the attacks.[10]
IS-WAP also conducted mass abductions of more than 300 civilians, including women and children in the town of Ngoshe in Borno state, as part of their Ramadan offensive.[11] Local sources falsely hypothesised that the abduction was a retaliation for recent Nigerian military operation that resulted in deaths of three Jama’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihad (JAS, lit. Group of the People of Sunnah for Dawah and Jihad, also known as Boko Haram) commanders.[12] JAS is IS-WAP’s main rival Salafi-jihadist faction.
Different security analysts reported that recent IS-WAP attacks show unusual amount of coordination and complexity, including simultaneous use of anti-aircraft weaponry, mortars, drones, improvised explosive devices (IED) and suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIED).[13] The use of different types of weapons and tactics suggest that IS-WAP is becoming increasingly innovative and adaptable during its operations, most likely with the support from IS core.
Other groups like Lakurawa, a sub-group of the Islamic State – Sahel Province (IS-SP), and JAS / Boko Haram also conducted several ambushes and attacks against both military and civilian targets. Locals from northwestern Kebbi state suspect that Lakurawa was responsible for an ambush that killed nine Nigerian soldiers, a policeman and a civilian while they were responding to a warning of impending attack.[14] JAS most likely conducted three coordinated suicide bombings in northeastern Borno state capital city of Maiduguri, which resulted in at least 23 people killed and more than 100 wounded.[15]
Nigerian government is trying to degrade terrorist groups’ capabilities and prevent their further expansion to the south while its security forces are becoming overstretched all throughout northwestern, northern and northeastern parts of the country. After disastrous handling of the attacks in the early days of March, Nigerian military managed to achieve some success in the second half of the month when it repelled complex attack on a military base at Mallam Fatori, near Nigeria-Niger border, where more than 80 unidentified insurgents, either belonging to JAS or IS-WAP, were killed by military’s air support during the attack. A large cache of weapons, ammunition, IEDs and drone components was seized by security forces.[16] Nigerian military also confirmed that it intensified counter-terrorism campaign in Borno state where the air component of ”Operation Hadin Kai” conducted multiple airstrikes targeting IS-WAP militants in the Sambisa Forest area to support ground forces’ clearance operations.[17]
Nigeria is also actively seeking military and intelligence assistance for counter-terrorism operations from other countries including France and the US, which could improve its combat effectiveness against terrorist groups. US defence official confirmed that the US military deployed an unspecified number of MQ-9 Reaper drones at newly constructed Bauchi Airfield in Nigeria, following last month’s deployment of 200 US troops that are providing intelligence and training support to Nigerian military.[18] French officials reported that France could soon support Nigerian security forces with intelligence sharing, combat training and capacity-building to improve their operations against growing insurgency in Nigerian northern border regions.[19]
3. Somalia
In March 2026, Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF), with support from the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) Ugandan troops and international partners, launched ”Operation Rolling Thunder” in areas of the Lower Shabelle region to dismantle key Al-Shabaab strongholds, disrupt group’s logistical routes and provide security to both local civilian population and important agricultural and production zones.[20] The ground component of SNAF, Somali National Army (SNA) and AUSSOM contingent recaptured Daarusalaam and Mubaarak areas in the Lower Shabelle region. Both areas served as important Al-Shabaab hubs which hosted multiple command posts, weapons depots and military equipment caches belonging to the terrorist group that were reportedly destroyed.[21] SNAF also recaptured the area around Hawaadley in the Middle Shabelle region as part of ”Operation Badr,” where several Al-Shabaab positions and logistical camps were reportedly destroyed.[22]
While AUSSOM and local security forces managed to push Al-Shabaab fighters from previously seized territories, the Al-Qa’ida (AQ) affiliate still holds large parts of Somali rural areas, from where it can conduct frequent terrorist attacks on major population centres.[23] Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) eliminated Al-Shabaab commander in the Hantiwadaag area, who supervised and coordinated terrorist cells responsible for several high-profile attacks in 2025.[24] NISA also eliminated Abdihamid Ali Abdullahi Moalim, an important Al-Shabaab member, who was responsible for coordinating group’s supply of weapons and bomb-making materials.[25] With the renewed offensive against the terrorist group, Somali Federal Government (SFG) likely seeks to portrait itself as reliable counter-terrorism partner and only legitimate authority in Somalia to the outside actors.
This comes after recent Israeli recognition of Somaliland as an independent state and simultaneously with the escalation of tensions between SFG and the South West State of Somalia (SWS). Latter recently announced that it will sever all ties with the Somali Federal Government, accusing the federal government of interfering in the state’s internal affairs and arming unidentified militias to destabilize security situation in the SWS. This is the third Somali federal subject that severed its ties with the SFG after Puntland and Jubbaland States.[26] SWS also stated that SFG’s recent deployment of SNA troops on SWS territory is focused on internal political objectives rather than counter-terrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, which controls areas in Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions.[27] That statement proved to be correct since as a response to the escalating tensions, the SNA took control of SWS administrative capital of Baidoa, resulting in the resignation of SWS regional leader.[28]
Escalation of hostilities between SFG and SWS along with deepening rift between SFG on the one side and South West, Jubbaland and Puntland states on the other could have a negative impact on counter-terrorism efforts against AQ-affiliated Al-Shabaab and Islamic State’s regional branch, Islamic State – Somalia Province (IS-S). Throughout the month, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) reported that it conducted multiple airstrikes targeting both terrorist groups all across Somalia.[29] The US seeks to prevent both groups from building up their capabilities to carry out so-called external operations – that is, terrorist attacks against US and Western targets at home and abroad.
* Views and opinions of the authors of this paper do not necessarily correspond to the views of the Euro-Atlantic Council of Slovenia.
Sources
[1] Basillioh Rukanga, ”DR Congo and Rwanda agree to ease tensions after talks in US,” BBC, (19.3.2026), https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15x5ejgyl3o
[2] ”M23 rebels withdraw from key positions in eastern DRC as peace accords take hold,” Top Africa News, (29.3.2026), https://www.topafricanews.com/2026/03/29/m23-rebels-withdraw-from-key-positions-in-eastern-drc-as-peace-accords-take-hold/
[3] US Department of the Treasury, ”Treasury Sanctions Rwanda Officials, Condemns Blatant Violations of Washington Peace Accords,” press release, (2.3.2026), https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0411
[4] Edith M. Lederer, ”Conflict in eastern Congo is escalating with use of heavy weapons and drones, UN warns,” AP News, (26.3.2026), https://apnews.com/article/congo-united-nations-rebels-government-conflict-drones-51be6546b03bfa58d6179119e1b5c69d
[5] ”Drones hit east Congo’s biggest city, killing French aid worker, rebels and UN say,” Reuters, (11.3.2026), https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/drones-hit-east-congos-biggest-city-killing-french-aid-worker-rebels-un-say-2026-03-11/
[6] Lucas Webber, ”Islamic State Expands China-Targeted Campaign from Asia to Africa with New DRC Mine Camp Attack,” Militant Wire, (19.3.2026), https://www.militantwire.com/p/islamic-state-expands-china-targeted
[7] Brant (@BrantPhilip_), ”ISCAP released several images of the attack against the Muchacha mining site operated by a Chinese company, and the connected Congolese military base,” X, (14.3.2026, 3:05 p.m.), https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2032820466516148416
[8] Michael DeAngelo, Yale Ford, Liam Karr and Zoe Sommer, ”IS Targets Morocco and Spain; M23 Pulls Back in Eastern DRC: Africa File, March 26, 2026,” Critical Threats, (26.3.2026), https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/is-morocco-spain-drc-m23-somalia-fgs-southwest-sudan-rsf-ethiopia-sudan-chad-rsf-drc-uganda-iscap-africa-file-march-26-2026 – DRC-ISCAP
[9] Wilson McMakin and Dyepkazah Shibayan, ”Islamic militants abduct more than 300 people in northeastern Nigeria, officials say,” AP News, (6.3.2026), https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-borno-state-militant-attack-a7f5f647c4a7c9d23120e051aa69d099; Brant (@BrantPhilip_), ”The situation seems to be very grim, ISWAP’s “Burn the Camps” offensive against the Nigerian army of this year is way more intense than last year’s, this is…,” X, (7.3.2026, 10:42 p.m.), https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2030398622504792338
[10] Brant (@BrantPhilip_), ”ISWAP released a recap graphic about the week between March 5 and 11, stating that in that period they killed and injured over 90 Nigerian soldiers, including…,” X, (12.3.2026, 3:59 p.m.), https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2032109204379406846?s=20; Chinedu Asadu, ”Jihadis intensify attacks against Nigeria’s military, killing officers and carting away weapons,” AP News, (10.3.2026), https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-boko-haram-jihadi-attacks-borno-ec27895c51cf640af34ac4ab924aa0d7; Eromo Egbejule, ”At least 65 Nigerian soldiers killed in jihadist raids in country’s north-east,” The Guardian, (11.3.2026), https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/nigerian-soldiers-killed-jihadist-raids-north-east
[11] Eromo Egbejule, ”At least 65 Nigerian soldiers killed in jihadist raids in country’s north-east,” The Guardian.
[12] Wilson McMakin and Dyepkazah Shibayan, ”Islamic militants abduct more than 300 people in northeastern Nigeria, officials say,” AP News.
[13] Chinedu Asadu, ”Jihadis intensify attacks against Nigeria’s military, killing officers and carting away weapons,” AP News; Eromo Egbejule, ”At least 65 Nigerian soldiers killed in jihadist raids in country’s north-east,” The Guardian; Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, Zoe Sommer and Alexis Thomas, ”US Sanctions Sudanese Islamists; ISWAP Ramadan Offensive: Africa File, March 12, 2026,” Critical Threats, (12.3.2026), https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/us-sudan-saf-iswap-nigeria-togo-russia-africa-corps-niger-issp-benin-jnim-africa-file-march-12-2026 – Nigeria
[14] Dyepkazah Shibayan, ”Militants in northern Nigeria kill 10 security forces and 1 resident, officials say,” Washington Post, (25.3.2026), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/25/nigeria-kebbi-attack-militants-giron-masa/63e3171a-286c-11f1-a0f2-3ba4c9fe08ac_story.html
[15] Isaac Kaledzi, ”Nigeria tightens security in Maiduguri after suicide attacks,” DW, (17.3.2026), https://www.dw.com/en/nigeria-tightens-security-in-maiduguri-after-suicide-attacks/a-76398081
[16] Ahmed Kingimi, ”At least 80 insurgents killed as Nigerian troops repel base assault, military says,” Reuters, (18.3.2026), https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/least-80-insurgents-killed-nigerian-troops-repel-base-assault-military-says-2026-03-18/
[17] The News Agency of Nigeria, ”Military intensifies air raids on ISWAP targets in Sambisa Forest,” The Guardian Nigeria, (27.3.2026), https://guardian.ng/news/military-intensifies-air-raids-on-iswap-targets-in-sambisa-forest/?utm_source=auto-read-also&utm_medium=web
[18] Monika Pronczuk, ”US sends drones to Nigeria to join troops sent for intelligence and training,” AP News, (24.3.2026), https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-us-drones-reaper-attacks-boko-haram-d6ddd0d779b9411a1fea34e30802209f
[19] Bouba Jalloh, ”Nigeria expands security ties amid insurgency,” DW, (25.3.2026), https://www.dw.com/en/nigeria-moves-to-broaden-security-alliances-amid-ongoing-insurgency-threats/a-76512959
[20] Ministry of Defence of the Federal Republic of Somalia, ”Somali National Armed Forces Launch ”Operation Rolling Thunder” in Lower Shabelle,” press release, (1.3.2026), https://api.mod.gov.so/uploads/release/c0b66673-7aac-4e69-8578-3cb22a596d54.pdf
[21] Ministry of Defence of the Federal Republic of Somalia, ”Somali National Army and AUSSOM Liberate Darasaalaam and Mubaarak in Lower Shabelle from Al-Shabaab,” press release, (2.3.2026), https://api.mod.gov.so/uploads/release/1e02cdbd-f7f5-4f31-b564-056e47f392dd.pdf
[22] Ministry of Defence of the Federal Republic of Somalia, ”Somali National Armed Forces Liberate Hawaadley in Middle Shabelle,” press release, (11.3.2026), https://api.mod.gov.so/uploads/release/a447ef09-f06f-4fc3-8e72-a532d0bfc774.pdf
[23] ”Somali parliament backs constitutional changes that could extend president’s term,” Reuters, (5.3.2026), https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somali-parliament-approves-constitution-change-extend-presidents-term-delay-2026-03-05/
[24] NISA (@HSNQ_NISA), ”PRESS RELEASE Mogadishu, March 02, 2026: The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), in cooperation with international partners, conducted a planned…,” X, (2.3.2026, 7:46 p.m.), https://x.com/HSNQ_NISA/status/2028542517319450956
[25] Mohamed Abdi, ”Somalia’s Intelligence Agency Kills Al-Shabaab Explosives Chief in Targeted Operation,” Dawan Africa, (26.3.2026), https://www.dawan.africa/news/somalias-intelligence-agency-kills-al-shabaab-explosives-chief-in-targeted-operation
[26] News Desk, ”South West becomes the third state to cut ties with Somalia’s federal government,” Geeska, (17.3.2026), https://www.geeska.com/en/south-west-becomes-third-state-cut-ties-somalias-federal-government
[27] Zamzam Osman, ”South West State Accuses Somalia Government of Military Escalation,” Dawan Africa, (24.3.2026), https://www.dawan.africa/news/south-west-state-accuses-somalia-government-of-military-escalation
[28] ”Somali army takes control of strategic city, regional leader resigns,” Reuters, (30.3.2026), https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somali-national-army-takes-control-part-biggest-city-south-west-state-2026-03-30/
[29] US Africa Command Public Affairs, ”U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Targeting ISIS-Somalia,” press release, (9.3.2026), https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36279/us-forces-conduct-strike-targeting-isis-somalia; US Africa Command Public Affairs, ”U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Targeting al-Shabaab,” press release, (12.3.2026), https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36290/us-forces-conduct-strike-targeting-al-shabaab; US Africa Command Public Affairs, ”U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Targeting al-Shabaab,” press release, (16.3.2026), https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36295/us-forces-conduct-strike-targeting-al-shabaab; US Africa Command Public Affairs, ”U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Targeting ISIS-Somalia,” press release, (17.3.2026), https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36305/us-forces-conduct-strike-targeting-isis-somalia; US Africa Command Public Affairs, ”U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Targeting al-Shabaab,” press release, (21.3.2026), https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36312/us-forces-conduct-strike-targeting-al-shabaab; US Africa Command Public Affairs, ”U.S. Forces Conduct Strike Targeting al-Shabaab,” press release, (30.3.2026), https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36323/us-forces-conduct-strike-targeting-al-shabaab