Eastern Europe
August saw an attempt at the resumption of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia with US mediation. Escalating air strikes by both Russia and Ukraine raise the risk of the war spilling over. Extensive alleged Russian sabotage attempts are targeting the defense industries of NATO countries that support Ukraine. New international military exercises are heightening the threat level. Emergence of new underground tunnels for illegal migration in the Baltic states. Weather conditions have triggered an energy crisis in Romania, Hungary, Lithuania, and Latvia.
1. Ukraine-Russia conflict
On 13 August, Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, stated that Russia was willing to return to negotiations, but only regarding the American peace proposal, not the one from Ukraine. Talks between Ukraine and the US had been halted on 6 August, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga, though Ukraine had also indicated a willingness to resume them.[1] Negotiations broke down on 22 August with the Russian president Vladimir Putin calling the demands too “exotic” to continue the talks. On 12 August, the US and Ukraine proposed a temporary suspension of air strikes, but Putin rejected the proposal, declaring that air strikes would continue and intensify in response to Ukrainian attacks on the warehouses of the Russian retail chain Wildberries.[2] Intensified attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure are ongoing; an attack on the night of 20 August disrupted hot water supplies and struck a hospital and a school in Kyiv.[3] Alongside these attacks, there have been reports of increased drone incursions and airspace violations in Romania, Finland, the Baltic states, and Bulgaria. On 17 August, Romania reported the incursion of four drones. All told, 54 incidents of drone entry into its airspace have been recorded this year, compared to 25 for the entire year of 2025. The Baltic states report that Ukrainian drones have veered off course and entered their airspace due to Russian electronic signal jammers.[4]
2. Eastern Europe
On 7 August, Polish and US intelligence services detained a suspect allegedly planning an assassination attempt against a Ukrainian-American citizen currently residing in Warsaw. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the plot was allegedly sponsored by Russia.[5] On 31 August, an investigation was launched in Poland into a fire at the WB Electronics factory south of Warsaw. The inquiry aims to determine whether foreign intelligence services were involved. The factory manufactures key components for drone production.[6] Meanwhile, Poland is preparing exercises for a “coalition of the willing” aimed at enhancing readiness, coordination, and interoperability among the Polish, French, and British militaries. Poland has also invited the Baltic states to participate in this cooperation. As part of the “Eastern Shield” initiative, Poland is stepping up cooperation with Germany to strengthen defensive positions around Kaliningrad and along the border with Belarus. In addition to fortifications, the projects are expected to include the construction of new logistics centers and the deployment of anti-drone sensors, incorporating lessons learned from the Ukrainian military.[7]
On 25 August, Slovakia thwarted a sabotage attempt aimed at setting fire to the Skyeton factory, which produces drones. Slovak police detained two foreign nationals on 27 August, while a third was apprehended in Germany. Skyeton stated that Russia was likely behind the attacks, noting that their facilities in Ukraine are frequent targets of Russian sabotage.[8]
On 18 August, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced an investigation into possible Russian involvement in a fire that broke out on 14 August at a building used by Milrem Robotics, a company that manufactures unmanned vehicles used in Ukraine.[9] Estonian Minister of Justice and Digital Affairs Liisa Pakosta announced a decision to block emails from “.ru” domains from reaching government institutions directly; instead, they will be quarantined and screened for potential threats. The measure aims to strengthen Estonia’s resilience against Russian cyberattacks.[10]
On 14 August, Latvia tested drone interceptors at the Sēlija training ground during the NATO exercise “Baltic Trust 26.” Approximately 650 allied personnel and representatives from European defense companies attended the exercise. The goal is to foster closer cooperation and development between private companies and the armed forces.[11]
Poland and Lithuania are exploring options to increase the US military presence on their soil as Poland is negotiating the potential establishment of a permanent US base within its territory[12], whereas Lithuania has not released specific details beyond expressing a desire for greater cooperation and an increased presence.[13]
Lithuania and Latvia have discovered new smuggling tunnels leading to Belarus, intended for illegal migration. On 10 August, Latvia discovered a new tunnel and apprehended 28 migrants[14], while a similar attempt was detected in Lithuania, where an unfinished tunnel was found on 5 August. This is the third tunnel discovered in Lithuania in two months.[15] Regarding migration, Estonia has noted an unusual surge in “minors” crossing the border illegally. Border Guard chief Indrek Aru stated that on 21 July, 109 foreign nationals were detained, more than 50 of them claimed to be minors despite having previously stated otherwise in the hope that this lie would result in lighter penalties and allow them to avoid detention centers.[16]
Due to high temperatures that caused the Danube’s water level to drop to a critical point, Romania was forced to temporarily shut down its nuclear power plant—which supplied 20% of the country’s electricity—for safety reasons. The first reactor was shut down in July, and the entire plant was completely powered down on 13 August. As of the end of August, there were no reports of a restart.[17]
On 2 August, Hungary announced that it would also have to temporarily shut down its only nuclear power plant on 6 August; however, this ultimately did not happen, as the country managed to reroute the water supply for the plant—specifically by sinking two barges to raise the water level—though the plant operated at only 25% capacity.[18] Consequently, water usage restrictions were imposed in more than 100 villages and towns.[19]
Lithuania and Latvia were struck by a powerful cyclone that killed two people and caused power outages for over 500,000 people. Rail services and other forms of public transport were halted, and significant infrastructure damage occurred. Estonia and Poland were also affected by the storm. Latvian geologist and meteorologist Viksna suggested that climate change could be a possible cause of the storm.[20]
* Views and opinions of the authors of this paper do not necessarily correspond to the views of the Euro-Atlantic Council of Slovenia.
Sources
[1] UA NEWS (13. 8. 2026). Russia has stated its readiness to resume peace talks with Ukraine.Ua.news. https://ua.news/en/war-vs-rf/v-rf-zaiavili-pro-gotovnist-vidnoviti-mirni-peregovori-z-ukrayinoiu
[2] Nowakowsky T. (22. 8. 2026). Putin claims Ukraine peace proposals too ‘exotic’ for Russia. Kiyevindependet. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-ukraine-peace-proposals-too-exotic-for-russia/
[3] Jamesand I., Johnson D. (20. 8. 2026) Russia ‘purposefully’ hit critical infrastructure in latest strikes, Kyiv mayor says. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98vzmden5yo
[4] Brennan D. (21. 8. 2026). Russia’s escalating strikes in Ukraine increasingly spilling into NATO, Romania says. ABC news. https://abcnews.com/International/russia-drone-incursions-nato-airspace-jump-exponentially-2026/story?id=135771388
[5] Ciobanu C. (13. 8. 2026). Poland says it thwarted Russian plot to kill an American citizen in a NATO country. PBS. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/poland-says-it-thwarted-russian-plot-to-kill-an-american-citizen-in-a-nato-country
[6] Tamsut F. (31. 8. 2026). Poland launches sabotage probe in drone factory fire. DW.
https://www.dw.com/en/poland-launches-sabotage-probe-in-drone-factory-fire/a-78580918
[7] Adamowski J. (3.8.2026). Poland readies Ukraine ‘Coalition of Willing’ drills, eyes NATO support for border defense. DefenseNews. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/08/03/poland-readies-ukraine-coalition-of-willing-drills-eyes-nato-support-for-border-defense/
[8] Diakonov I. (28. 8. 2026). Attempted arson at Slovak drone factory targeted Skyeton: Ukrainian among those detained – Reuters. Ukrainska pravda. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/28/8050683/
[9] Reuters (18. 8. 2026). Estonia PM says arson attack on defence contractor may be linked to Russia. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/estonia-pm-says-arson-attack-defence-contractor-may-be-linked-russia-2026-08-18/
[10] Voltri J. (31. 8. 2026). Emails sent to Estonia’s state institutions from Russian servers will be quarantined. ERR.ee. https://news.err.ee/1610123764/emails-sent-to-estonia-s-state-institutions-from-russian-servers-will-be-quarantined
[11] Popilnichenkko K. (14.8.2026). NATO Exercises Test Interceptor Drones Against Shahed-Style Threats in Latvia, Video. United24. https://united24media.com/world/nato-exercises-test-interceptor-drones-against-shahed-style-threats-in-latvia-video-21705
[12] NDTV (5. 8. 2026). Talks On For Permanent US Base In Poland Which Borders Both Russia, Ukraine. Ndtv. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/talks-on-for-permanent-us-base-in-poland-which-borders-both-russia-ukraine-11869136
[13] LRT Radio (28. 8. 2026). Lithuania considers hosting more US troops as Washington reviews European presence. LRT. https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/3035060/lithuania-considers-hosting-more-us-troops-as-washington-reviews-european-presence?srsltid=AfmBOooKGGfV7WSF7tNbfJQLRwvbjA_8DAbcCsmPa2fDyiSor25y8Xu4
[14] Peseckyte G. (21. 8. 2026). Latvia stops 28 migrants after tunnel discovery: “We’re protecting Germans and Belgians”. Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/21/we-are-guarding-germans-belgians-latvia-stops-28-migrants-from-belarus-after-tunnel-discov
[15] Popilnichenkko K. (5. 8. 2026). Lithuanian Border Guards Spot Underground Smuggling Route Dug From Belarus. United24. https://united24media.com/world/lithuanian-border-guards-spot-underground-smuggling-route-dug-from-belarus-21405
[16] Muller A., Leetna M. (14. 8. 2026). Police: more than 50 irregular migrants detained in Estonia claim to be minors. ERR. https://news.err.ee/1610110522/police-more-than-50-irregular-migrants-detained-in-estonia-claim-to-be-minors
[17] Lukiv J. (13. 8. 2026). Romania shuts only nuclear plant as heat causes huge drop in Danube River level. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqlxpq5q799o
[18] Reuters (19. 8. 2026). Hungary’s nuclear plant avoids shutdown as water level expected to stay high enough. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hungarys-nuclear-plant-avoids-shutdown-water-level-expected-stay-high-enough-2026-08-19/
[19] AP, Reuters (2. 8. 2026). Hungary plans to shut down only nuclear power plant amid drought. Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/hungary-plans-to-shut-down-only-nuclear-power-plant-amid-drought
[20] Ciobanu C. (23. 8. 2026). Powerful storm hits Baltic countries, killing 2 and leaving hundreds of thousands without power. Apnews. https://apnews.com/article/cyclone-baltics-storm-power-injuries-f5e6f0701da4649fa8f6ce13424deffb