Somalia, Sudan and West Africa
February 2026 was marked on the African continent by the continuation of armed clashes in Sudan, the intensification of counter-terrorism operations in Somalia, and further fragmentation in West Africa. In Sudan, the civil war continues primarily in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, accompanied by a worsening humanitarian crisis. In Somalia, joint operations by Somali forces and the United States targeted Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia, while political tensions between the government in Mogadishu and Somaliland remain visible. In West Africa, the institutional rift between ECOWAS and the AES confederation is solidifying, while non-state armed groups are expanding their influence. The report summarises the key security, political and humanitarian developments.
1. Sudan
One of the most media-exposed global hotspots is a country that has been embroiled in active civil war since 2023. Two main sides are fighting for control over the 1.8 million km² state. On one side are the government Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), representing the internationally recognised authority led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. On the other side, we have the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the leadership of Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo – Hemedti. In addition to these two actors, other, smaller, armed groups are active in individual areas.
The most intense fighting occurred in southern Sudan, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions. The humanitarian situation in the country has deteriorated further, significantly affecting the civilian population. The clashes are causing mass human rights violations and large-scale displacement of civilians. The international community has accused both sides of committing war crimes.[1] According to current data, more than 30 million people require humanitarian assistance due to the conflict.[2]
Due to the escalation of the situation in border areas, Chad closed its border with Sudan on 23 February to prevent the spread of instability to its territory.[3] The majority of the country remains under SAF control, which also enjoys external support. One of its supporters is Egypt, which reportedly carried out airstrikes on RSF convoys in previous months and continued doing so in February, although this has never been officially confirmed.[4] The United Nations repeatedly warned of the deepening humanitarian crisis during the same period.
2. Somalia
Somalia has been in the midst of an active civil war since the beginning of the 21st century. Over the month, various military operations took place, both national and those supported by foreign military forces. Several different armed forces are fighting for dominance. The most prominent currently include: Somali Armed Forces under the federal government, the Islamist group Al-Shabaab (linked to Al-Qaeda), ISIS-Somalia (a local branch of the Islamic State), the political-territorial entity Somaliland as a partially internationally recognised state, and Puntland and Jubaland as partially autonomous regions that do not recognise the current Somali federal government.
On the political level, Somalia was elected to the “Peace and Security Council” of the African Union on 11 February.[5] The following day, the African Union adopted a ministerial-level statement on the situation in Somalia, supporting the territorial integrity of the federal government’s territory and rejecting Somaliland as an independent state. It also expressed support for operations against Al-Shabaab.[6]
At the end of the month, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud rejected Israel’s proposal to establish a military base in the Somaliland area.[7] In the same period, Somaliland issued a statement that it is ready to grant the United States access to its critical minerals, thereby influencing its international position.[8]
Military operations by the federal government in cooperation with the United States were conducted against Al-Shabaab. The US carried out airstrikes against them on 15 February in the Shabeellaha Dhexe area, located 165 kilometres northeast of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital. Between 22 and 26 February, AFRICOM and the Somali government conducted joint strikes on ISIS-Somalia positions around the Golis Mountains in Puntland.[9] Activities were not limited to foreign support. On 24 February, the Somali intelligence agency killed 23 Al-Shabaab members in separate operations.[10]
At the regional level, the African Union’s international mission AUSSOM operates, aimed at supporting security and stability in Somalia. Egypt joined the mission on 11 February by deploying military forces to the country.[11]
Tensions also continued between regional entities. On 26 February, Somaliland forces carried out attacks on positions of the Northeastern region of Somalia in the Sanaag province.[12]
2.1 Humanitarian crisis in Somalia
The humanitarian crisis significantly affects the security situation in Somalia, as warned by the United Nations. The number of people facing acute hunger has increased to 6.5 million, nearly double compared to the beginning of the previous year.[13] The crisis is further exacerbated by climate factors. Rainfall is approximately 60% below the annual average, affecting access to drinking water and reducing agricultural production. As a result, prices of food and basic necessities are rising.[14]
The international community is also taking steps to address the crisis. On 26 February, the European Union announced a new €63 million humanitarian aid package to help civilians overcome the humanitarian crisis.[15]
3. West Africa
West Africa remains one of the key security regions on the African continent. In addition to security challenges, the region is characterised by a political transformation of regional structures that are closely intertwined with regional stability. Last month, differences and tensions between two regional groups – the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) deepened. The United Nations, in cooperation with Mali, continues the “Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan”, under which $578 million is being raised to respond to the humanitarian crisis.[16]
3.1 Security activities
Due to weak state institutions and the spread of terrorism, several ideas for regional cooperation have emerged to prevent terrorism and other organised crime. ECOWAS aims to mobilise and prepare 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to fight terrorism on the territories of member states. The AES, which emerged in 2023 as a pan-African project of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, evolved from a military pact into a formalised confederation in mid-2024. They have likewise committed to maintaining a combined force of 6,000 troops to strengthen security and stability in the region.[17]
Among the key non-state actors in the region are Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), linked to Al-Qaeda, and Islamic State – Sahel Province. Both groups attack state structures and international forces while competing for territorial control. Recently, they have expanded their activities to other countries such as Benin, Niger and Nigeria.[18] JNIM primarily operates from Mali but has recently been more active in Burkina Faso, where numerous gold mines fuel the group’s capabilities.[19]
* Views and opinions of the authors of this paper do not necessarily correspond to the views of the Euro-Atlantic Council of Slovenia.
Sources
[1] Walsh, D., Browne, M., Schmitt, E., Cumming-Bruce, N. “Egypt Uses Drones in Sudan Conflict.” The New York Times. (1. 2. 2026) https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html
[2] United Nations News. “Sudan Crisis Deepens Amid Ongoing Fighting.” UN News. (9. 2. 2026) https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166925
[3] Plett Usher, B., Otalor, J. “Sudan Conflict Escalates in Darfur.” BBC News. (23. 2. 2026) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2x1n95z5vo
[4] Walsh, D., Browne, M., Schmitt, E., Cumming-Bruce, N. “Egypt Uses Drones in Sudan Conflict.” The New York Times. (1. 2. 2026) https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html
[5] https://web.mfa.gov.so/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/11Addis-Ababa.jpg
[6] Peace and Security Council of the African Union (12. 2. 2026) https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/communique-of-the-1330th-meeting-of-the-psc-held-at-ministerial-level-on-12-february-2026-on-consideration-of-the-situation-in-somalia-and-operations-of-the-au-support-and-stabilization-mission-in-somalia-aussom
[7] Al Jazeera Staff. “Somalia’s Mohamud Rejects Israeli Base in Somaliland.” Al Jazeera. (8.2.2026) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/8/somalias-mohamud-slams-israels-interference-rejects-base-on-somaliland
[8] France 24. “Somaliland Pins Hopes on Critical Mineral Rush.” France 24. (25.2.2026) https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260225-somaliland-pins-hopes-on-critical-mineral-gold-rush
[9] U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). “U.S. Forces Conduct Strikes Targeting ISIS-Somalia.” AFRICOM. (2. 3. 2026) https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36268/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-isis-somalia
[10] TRT World. “Somalia Security Developments.” TRT World. (25. 2. 2026) https://www.trtworld.com/article/7a606d87b3bd
[11] Boffano, A. “Egypt Sends Troops to Somalia Amid Israel Tensions.” The New Arab. (12. 2. 2026) https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-sends-troops-somalia-amid-israel-tensions
[12] Abdi, M. “Northeast Accuses Somaliland of Armed Attack in Disputed Sanaag Region.” Dawan Africa. (26. 2. 2026) https://www.dawan.africa/news/northeast-accuses-somaliland-of-armed-attack-in-disputed-sanaag-region-su
[13] Humanitarian Aid, United Nations. “Somalia Faces Growing Humanitarian Emergency.” UN News. (24. 2. 2026) https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1167026
[14] Id, M. ”Somalia Facing Disastrous Drought.” The New Humanitarian. (19.2.2026)https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/opinion/2026/02/19/somalia-facing-disastrous-drought-not-time-weaponise-aid
[15] Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO). “EU Announces €63 Million for Somalia.” European Commission. (26.2.2026) https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/news/eu-announces-eu63-million-somalia-respond-worsening-humanitarian-crisis-2026-02-26_en
[16] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). “Mali 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan.” OCHA. (10. 2. 2026) https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/mali/mali-2026-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-executive-summary
[17] Lawal, S. “West African Regional Army Deployment Explained.” Al Jazeera. (2.3.2026) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/west-african-regional-army-why-thousands-of-soldiers-are-deploying
[18] Nsaibia, H. “Why Jihadist Violence Is Escalating in the Benin–Niger–Nigeria Border Triangle.” ACLED. (26. 2. 2026) https://acleddata.com/qa/qa-why-jihadist-violence-escalating-benin-niger-and-nigeria-border-triangle
[19] AFP. “Deadly Jihadist Offensive Sweeps Northern and Eastern Burkina Faso.” The Africa Report. (27. 2. 2026) https://www.theafricareport.com/410312/deadly-jihadist-offensive-sweeps-northern-and-eastern-burkina-faso/